IDF Would Face an Old Foe Battled-Tested by Syria

By David Schenker

David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense as Levant country director, the Pentagon's top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant. In that capacity, he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. He was awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005.

Hezbollah – an Iran-backed militia that controls southern Lebanon – boasts a medium-sized army and a whopping arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets and missiles. Now, as certain fronts of the Syrian civil war begin to stabilize along “de-confliction zones” sponsored by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the possibility that Hezbollah’s thousands of fighters in Syria may return to southern Lebanon and redirect their attention towards Israel has policymakers in Jerusalem worried. The Cipher Brief’s Fritz Lodge spoke with David Schenker, Director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, about what could spark a new war between Israel and one of the most powerful sub-state actors in the world.

The Cipher Brief: What is the current balance of forces between Israel and Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border, and how does it compare to the balance of forces that we saw before the last major conflict in 2006?  

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