Have We Reached a Bosnia Moment in Syria?

By John Sipher

John Sipher worked for the CIA’s clandestine service for 28 years. He is now a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a co-founder of Spycraft Entertainment. John served multiple overseas tours as Chief of Station and Deputy Chief of Station in Europe, Asia, and in high-threat environments. He is the recipient of CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal.

It’s often hard to discern when a tipping point arrives in any international crisis.  For those of us working the Balkan beat in the 1990s, it wasn’t until the 1995 massacre at Srebrenica that U.S. and NATO Air Forces finally bombed the Bosnian Serb Army.  While Srebrenica was horrifying, it wasn’t as if it came out of nowhere.  Prior to 1995, no direct western action was taken despite years of ethnic cleansing, starvation, rape, concentration camps, the brutal destruction of hundreds of Bosniak towns and villages, and the use of heavy weapons against civilians in Sarajevo and elsewhere.  Diplomatic efforts to stop the carnage went nowhere and only seemed to empower the guilty parties.  Immediately after Srebrenica, however, the U.S.-led bombing campaign changed the dynamic on the ground and quickly led to the Dayton accords and an end of the war.

Are we at such a moment in Syria? 

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