Post-Conflict Colombia: It's Complicated

In light of the announcement by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos of a signed peace deal between the government of Colombia and the FARC, The Cipher Brief revisits Cynthia Arson of the Wilson Center’s take on what comes next in post-conflict Colombia.

March 23, 2016, the deadline set by the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) for concluding their peace talks, will come and go without fanfare.  There will be no signing ceremony, even if the two sides are very close to reaching a final agreement that most observers expect later this year.  After close to four years of arduous negotiations that nearly broke down on several occasions, the conclusion of a peace accord with Colombia’s largest guerrilla army will represent a momentous achievement for President Juan Manuel Santos and for Colombia as a nation.  But its significance will be quickly overshadowed by the gargantuan security, economic, and political tasks of the post-war era that will stretch—and perhaps exceed—the capacity of the Colombian state in coming years.