Colombia’s pollsters, who are usually pretty accurate predictors of vote results, didn’t foresee this. Public opinion surveys showed a clear majority of voters in the South American nation—from 55 percent to as many as 72 percent—intending to vote “yes” in an October 2 plebiscite to approve or reject a peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group. The accord itself, which would have ended a 52-year-old conflict—was signed at a euphoric ceremony just six days earlier, in the presence of several Latin American presidents, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, and many other dignitaries.
It would have been reasonable to expect the September 26 ceremony to boost support for the peace accord still further. It did not. In a shocking result that has sent the government of President Juan Manuel Santos into profound crisis and generated innumerable Brexit (the UK’s vote to leave the European Union) comparisons, Colombian voters—at least, the 37 percent who turned out—rejected the peace accord by a 50.2 percent to 49.7 percent margin.
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