Russian Military Modernization

Check the most recent RT (Russian TV) news coverage from Syria and you will see Moscow’s latest military hardware on display. Russia’s top of the line attack helicopters—the Ka-52 and MI 28N—remain a fixture on the battlefield even after President Vladimir Putin’s nominal declaration of a Russian pullout. Beneath the ostentatious display of shiny new hardware there are questions U.S. policymakers want answers to in order to understand Russian intent. How has the price of oil affected Putin’s string of 16 years of military budget increases? What is the state of Russia’s conventional and nuclear forces in light of recently announced military budget cuts?

The recent drop in oil prices and the subsequent effect on Russia’s state revenue suggests a reexamination of Moscow’s modernization ambitions.  Dmitry Orenburg, a senior research scientist at CNA, told the Cipher Brief that the Kremlin has largely insulated the military from deep budget cuts. The recently announced five percent cut to the military’s budget is expected to affect procurement of new weapons and systems rather than Russia’s ability to conduct foreign operations or military exercises. However, the Kremlin has set strict deficit restrictions on how much debt it is willing to incur. The fat left to trim has its limits, therefore, any further decrease in oil prices could force the military to start making capability cuts rather than just ones to procurement.

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