Questioning the Hype

President Obama’s visit earlier this month to Alaska focused attention on the Arctic region’s growing geopolitical and geo-economic importance, not to mention its ecological significance during a period of climate change. Although Obama’s visit and the sail-by of Chinese naval ships drew lots of immediate attention, the significance of the Arctic to world affairs will play out over several decades. Many are punning about the potential for a new Cold War in the region while others tout the significance of the region’s hydrocarbon reserves. National security and defense specialists are concerned about the former, but it’s the latter issue that’s attracting the attention of Fortune 500 companies.

When thinking about a situation whose timeline is long and complex, which is I think the case with the Arctic, not only is it useful to apply sound analytic methods, but we also have the luxury of time to do so. So there’s no excuse for loose thinking and incomplete analysis. And yet it’s easy to find examples of both in current discussions about the Arctic’s future.