Conventional wisdom expected the Taliban to pose a security challenge following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan. The Obama Administration and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani pinned hopes on Pakistan, the Taliban’s traditional backer, in arranging talks with the Taliban to manage the extent of the threat posed by the insurgency. The talks are still muddling through and Taliban attacks in provinces bordering Pakistan have increased.
The greater and more complicating threat to order in the region, however, comes from splintering of the Taliban and the possible emergence of factions affiliated with ISIS. Although Pakistan continues to hold out the prospects of a negotiated settlement with the Afghan Taliban, its ability to bring a unified Taliban movement to the negotiating table is very much in doubt.
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62
Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.
Subscriber+
