Rwanda: On the Cusp

By Margaret K. McMillion

Margaret K. McMillion was U.S. Ambassador to Rwanda from 2001 to 2004.  She also served in Kigali on her first assignment in the U.S. Department of State from 1975 to 1977. After retirement from a 30-year career in the Foreign Service in 2006, Ambassador McMillion taught international relations for six years at the Webster University Thailand Campus in Bangkok, where she resides.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s January 1 announcement that he will stand for a third term following the December 2015 constitutional referendum, thereby ending the two-term limit, was expected. But what does it mean for Rwanda’s future?

Some observers say that voters want continuity. Rwandans have certainly benefited from the country’s impressive economic performance since the 1994 Genocide. The economic growth rate has averaged 7.8 percent since 2000 and is projected to grow 6.5 percent in 2015. With the government’s focus on agriculture, the number of people living in poverty decreased from 59 percent of the population in 2001 to 45 percent in 2011. According to the World Bank, increased agricultural productivity, diversification into the non-farm sector, a decline in the birth rate, and increased remittances and transfers improved livelihoods. The World Bank credits the high quality of government institutions and policy (universal health care, free education to grade 9, for example), foreign aid flows that comprise 35 to 40 percent of the national budget, and avoiding a return to violence as reasons for Rwanda’s success.

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