Al Shabaab’s Adaptive Model

By Tom Keatinge

Tom Keatinge is Director of the Centre for Financial Crime & Security Studies at The Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defence and security think-tank. He is the author of The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab and Identifying Foreign Terrorist Fighters: The Role of Public-Private Partnership, Information Sharing and Financial Intelligence. Prior to joining RUSI he was an investment banker for 20 years at J.P. Morgan.

In mid-October, the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea published its latest report confirming that despite years of effort and the recent territorial gains that AMISOM (the African Union’s mission in Somalia) and the Somali government have made against al-Shabaab, the group continues to garner the finances it needs to remain militarily active and function as a quasi-government in the areas of Somalia that it controls.

Al-Shabaab first came to prominence in 2006 when it led a nationalist struggle against the invading Ethiopian army following the collapse of Somalia’s Islamic Courts Union government. After Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Somalia in 2009, al-Shabaab began to adopt a far more extremist ideology, pledging allegiance to Osama bin Laden and mirroring the language of al-Qaeda. Al-Shabaab began promoting Somalia as a jihad destination where the ‘far enemy’ of the U.S. and regional governments, as well as the ‘near enemy’ in the form of the ‘apostate’ local government, could be battled in the name of Islam. Throughout this time, sustainable finance keyed the survival of al-Shabaab.

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